Harley-Davidson (HOG) Up 18.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Harley-Davidson's recent earnings report indicates a significant decline in revenues and earnings, raising concerns about the company's future performance as it approaches its next earnings release [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Harley-Davidson reported adjusted earnings of 88 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 99 cents, and down from $1.63 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - Consolidated revenues totaled $1.31 billion, a decrease of 19% year-over-year [2]. - Revenues from the Motorcycle and Related Products segment fell 23% to $1.04 billion, missing the forecast of $1.15 billion, with motorcycle shipments down 28% to 35,800 units [3]. - Retail motorcycle units sold globally declined 15% to 42,300, with North America seeing a 17% drop [4]. Segment Highlights - Revenues from parts and accessories decreased 4% to $187 million, while apparel revenues fell 13% to $55 million [5]. - Harley-Davidson Financial Services reported revenues of $257 million, down 2% year-over-year, and operating income also declined 2% to $70 million [5]. - LiveWire shipments were only 55 units, a 65% decline from the previous year, with revenues of $6 million [6]. Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, Harley-Davidson had cash and cash equivalents of $1.59 billion, and long-term debt decreased to $4.37 million [7]. - The company paid dividends of 18 cents per share, with no shares repurchased during the quarter [7]. Guidance and Outlook - Harley-Davidson has withheld its 2025 HDMC financial outlook due to tariff uncertainties but updated guidance for LiveWire and HDFS [8]. - The expected operating loss for LiveWire is now projected to be between $59-$69 million, while HDFS operating income is anticipated to range between $525 and $550 million for the full year [9]. - Estimates for Harley-Davidson have been trending upward, with a consensus estimate shift of 47.38% [10]. Industry Comparison - Harley-Davidson belongs to the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, where Tesla reported revenues of $22.5 billion, down 11.8% year-over-year, and an EPS of $0.40, compared to $0.52 a year ago [13]. - Tesla's Zacks Rank is 4 (Sell), while Harley-Davidson holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [12][14].