Affirm Stock Jumps As Analyst Highlights Record Spending Volumes, Strong Credit Trends

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings Inc. has reported strong financial results, with earnings and revenue exceeding market expectations, indicating a potential shift in the fintech industry's trajectory [1][2]. Financial Performance - Affirm reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.20 per share, doubling the Street estimate of $0.10, and quarterly revenue reached $876.41 million, surpassing expectations of $837.02 million [3]. - For the first quarter, Affirm projects revenue between $855 million and $885 million, slightly above the estimate of $860.55 million, and forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue at $3.86 billion, significantly higher than the consensus of $3.18 billion [4]. Growth Metrics - The company achieved record GMV growth, with a year-over-year increase of over 40% for the first time since the pandemic, and total notional volume reached its highest level on record [5]. - Affirm expanded its merchant network to 377,000 partners, a 24% increase year-over-year, and boosted transaction frequency by 20% [3]. Guidance and Projections - For fiscal 2026, Affirm guided GMV above $46 billion, slightly ahead of the Street's estimate of $45.8 billion, with a take rate of approximately 8.4% [6]. - Management expects a Revenue Less Transaction Costs (RLTC) margin of 4.0%, an adjusted operating margin above 26.1%, and a GAAP operating margin above 6.0% for fiscal 2026 [7]. Customer Acquisition and Credit Trends - There was a 66% year-over-year increase in 0% APR loans to $3 billion, which are crucial for acquiring new customers, as half of first-time users start with a 0% product [8]. - Credit trends remain solid, with 30+ day delinquencies down 18 basis points year-over-year, indicating a favorable shift towards low-risk, interest-free products [8]. Stock Performance - Affirm Holdings shares rose by 11.41% to $89.12, nearing a new 52-week high [11].