Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 1H25 met expectations, with a revenue increase of 15% to 15 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 8% to 3.2 billion yuan, alongside a mid-term dividend of 1.38 HKD per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 60% [1] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth of 15% was primarily driven by rapid sales growth and market share gains among major clients [1] - Revenue contributions from major brands were as follows: Uniqlo +27%, Nike +6%, adidas +28%, and Puma +15% [1] - Regional revenue changes included: China -2%, Europe +20%, Japan +18%, and the US +36%, with respective revenue shares of 24%, 20%, 17%, and 17% [1] - The company outperformed the growth rates of its four major clients, indicating strong core competitiveness [1] Gross Margin and Cost Factors - Gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% in 1H25 due to several factors: significant wage increases starting in 2H24, rising employee numbers in Cambodia, and changes in customer structure [2] - Other income sources, including government subsidies and exchange gains, increased by 230 million yuan, but were offset by a higher tax rate, which rose by 1.7 percentage points to 12.5% [2] Tariff and Production Capacity - Tariff impacts are manageable, with stable order patterns and pricing agreements under current tariff arrangements with the US [2] - The company continued to increase employee numbers in Cambodia and Vietnam, enhancing production capacity in Southeast Asia, which is expected to rise as efficiency improves [2] Future Outlook - Management maintains a low double-digit growth forecast for order volume in 2025, with expectations of high single-digit growth in 2H25 [2] - An improvement in gross margin is anticipated in 2H25 as the one-time wage increases and customer structure changes are expected to stabilize [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 4.39 and 4.80 yuan, respectively, with current stock prices reflecting 12 and 11 times the 2025 and 2026 earnings [3] - The target price has been raised by 5.5% to 73.72 HKD, corresponding to 15 and 14 times the 2025 and 2026 earnings, indicating a 24% upside potential [3]
申洲国际(02313.HK)：销量增长超预期 看好利润率持续改善