美国原油产量创历史新高、比官方之前预期还多，市场看空情绪升至18年低点

Core Viewpoint - The record-high U.S. crude oil production is intensifying concerns over global supply surplus, leading to extreme bearish sentiment among traders, indicating potential sustained downward pressure on oil prices [1][8]. Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.58 million barrels per day in June, surpassing previous estimates by approximately 150,000 barrels per day [1]. - Total liquid fuel production in the U.S. hit a historical peak of 21.1 million barrels per day in June, reflecting a month-over-month increase of about 145,000 barrels [2]. - Diesel demand was revised up to approximately 4 million barrels per day, showing a 6% increase from previous estimates and an 8.3% year-over-year growth [6]. - Jet fuel demand also performed well, with revised data showing a 4.3% increase from initial estimates and a 4.2% year-over-year growth [6]. - Despite strong demand in certain segments, the broader gasoline demand average is down 1.1% year-over-year, at about 9 million barrels per day [6]. Market Sentiment - Bearish sentiment has reached historical extremes, with speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil falling to the lowest level in 18 years, down by 5,461 contracts to 24,225 contracts [7]. - The increase in short positions has driven the bearish sentiment, with WTI crude oil short positions reaching a 20-month high [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a supply surplus may emerge by the end of this year and extend into next year, with Goldman Sachs estimating a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to the end of 2026 [9]. - The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $67 per barrel in 2025, dropping to $51 per barrel by 2026 [10]. - Geopolitical risks remain a concern, particularly regarding the lack of progress in peace agreements and potential changes in the Middle East, which could lead to sudden price fluctuations [10].