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日本国债为何被抛售?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-08-29 22:25

Group 1 - Japan's long-term government bonds are experiencing significant sell-offs, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.22% as of August 27, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [1] - The rise in bond yields is attributed to better-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, alongside political instability following the recent Senate elections [1][4] - A structural supply-demand imbalance in the bond market is evident, as the main buyers—pension funds, life insurance companies, and foreign investors—are unable to fill the gap left by the Bank of Japan's reduced bond purchases starting in March 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The pressure to absorb government bonds is shifting to other investors, but Japanese pension funds and life insurance companies face restrictions that limit their ability to increase bond purchases, leading to a net sell-off of 130 billion yen in July [2] - Foreign investment has decreased significantly, with net purchases in July dropping by two-thirds compared to June, further exacerbating the lack of buyers in the bond market [2] - The auction bid rate for 20-year bonds in May was only 2.50 times, the lowest since 2012, prompting the Japanese government to revise its bond issuance plans, reducing the issuance of long-term bonds by over 3 trillion yen [3] Group 3 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is struggling to implement effective measures to address the bond market issues, as further reductions in long-term bond issuance would necessitate increased short-term bond issuance, leading to higher interest payments [4] - The Bank of Japan is unlikely to change its stance on bond purchases due to significant accumulated losses and the current economic conditions, making it difficult to reverse the cooling trend in the long-term bond market [4] - Despite rumors of potential interest rate hikes due to pressure from the U.S., the Bank of Japan remains cautious, as rising rates could negatively impact corporate earnings and employee wage growth in the future [4]