金价疯涨至五周高位！白宫和美联储对峙引爆市场，PCE数据即将左右黄金战局

Core Viewpoint - A political conflict between the U.S. President and the Federal Reserve has significantly influenced the surge in gold prices, with gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking a new high in over a month [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 28, gold prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $3,423.02 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's attempt to dismiss a Fed governor [1][5]. - Silver prices also increased, reflecting a broader bullish trend in the precious metals market [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [1][3]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, prompting a lawsuit from Cook asserting the President's lack of authority to dismiss her [5]. - Analysts suggest that the pressure from the President may lead to expectations of accelerated rate cuts, providing strong support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold and silver reserves as part of a strategic adjustment, moving away from the "American exceptionalism" narrative [6]. Group 4: Future Price Projections - Market attention is focused on upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a mid-2026 gold price forecast of $4,000 per ounce, while Morgan Stanley suggests gold could approach $3,675 per ounce by year-end if the Fed's independence remains threatened [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to remain cautious and look for buying opportunities during market pullbacks, as the current market shows signs of being overbought [9]. - Various investment tools are recommended, including gold ETFs for short-term trading and physical gold for long-term investment [9].