格力电器(000651)1H25点评：空调收入承压 渠道改革推进

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected performance in 1H25, primarily due to disappointing domestic air conditioning sales [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was 97.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.46%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.412 billion yuan, an increase of 1.95% [1] - 2Q25 revenue was 55.818 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.99%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.508 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.07% [1] - 1H25 gross margin was 28.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year; the gross margin for consumer appliances decreased by 0.3 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow in 1H25 showed a net inflow of 28.3 billion yuan, significantly improving due to increased cash receipts from sales [2] Market Trends - Domestic air conditioning sales were a major drag on revenue, with consumer appliance revenue down 5% to 76.3 billion yuan in 1H25, while external sales increased by 10% to 16.3 billion yuan [2] - Increased competition in the air conditioning market led to a decline in the company's online retail market share by 1.7 percentage points in 2Q25 [2] - The company is undergoing channel reforms to reduce inventory, which may impact short-term revenue but is expected to enhance efficiency in the long run [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on digital transformation and channel reform, having established 24 new Gree Digital Technology companies in 1H25 [3] - The upgrade of "Dong Mingzhu Healthy Home" stores is ongoing, with over 800 stores upgraded by June 2025, expected to boost sales of refrigerators, washing machines, and water purifiers [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing channel reforms, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7.6% and 9.3% to 32.5 billion yuan and 33.8 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 times for 2025 and 7.1 times for 2026, with an 8% reduction in target price to 52.00 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 22.1% from the current price [4]