黄奇帆再次预言未来房地产,今年已经应验,明年或大概率也是正确的

Core Viewpoint - Huang Qifan's predictions regarding the real estate market have proven accurate, and he expresses strong confidence in his forecasts for the upcoming year [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - Huang Qifan predicted that China's new housing transaction volume would decline from 1.7 billion square meters to below 1 billion square meters, which many initially dismissed [3] - The new housing transaction volume peaked at 1.8 billion square meters in 2021 but is expected to drop to 970 million square meters in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 12.9% [5] - Key indicators show significant changes from 2020 to 2024, including a drop in total real estate construction from 2.2 billion square meters to over 600 million square meters, a decline of approximately 65% [7] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Real Estate Market - The number of marriage registrations in 2024 was 6.106 million pairs, a decrease of 20.5% from the previous year, leading to reduced housing demand [7] - Real estate prices have fallen by 40-50% compared to the baseline period, and real estate financing has decreased by about 50% [7] - The adjustment in the real estate market is characterized as a structural change rather than a short-term fluctuation [7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Government Actions - Huang Qifan predicts that average housing price growth over the next decade will be lower than GDP growth, indicating a stable market without significant price increases or decreases [7] - The government is expected to implement a large-scale stockpiling plan, potentially reaching 10 trillion yuan, to convert inventory housing into state-owned rental properties [7] - The housing price-to-income ratio is projected to decrease from the current 23-30 years to a target of 8-10 years [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Guidance - The real estate sector, once a pillar of the Chinese economy, is shifting back to its fundamental role of providing housing rather than serving as a quick appreciation tool [11] - Consumers are advised to approach the market with caution, with first-time buyers encouraged to purchase when policies are favorable, while those looking to upgrade should wait for a more favorable market [9][13] - The industry is expected to undergo significant adjustments, with the number of real estate companies potentially reducing from over 90,000 to fewer than 20,000 [7]