海天味业(603288)：业绩稳健 份额提升

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by cost improvements and a focus on expanding market share despite increased competition and rising expenses [1][3]. Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 15.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.91 billion yuan, up 13.3% [1]. - In 25Q2, revenue reached 6.91 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.0% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 1.71 billion yuan, increasing by 11.6% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 25H1 was 40.1%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, and for 25Q2, it was 40.2%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points [3]. Product and Channel Performance - In 25H1, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other products was 7.93 billion, 1.63 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 12.0%, 7.7%, and 16.7% [2]. - Online sales grew significantly, with a 39.0% increase year-on-year, while offline sales rose by 9.1% [2]. - The company had 6,681 distributors as of 25H1, a net decrease of 26 from the end of 2024, indicating ongoing channel structure adjustments [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company experienced a release of cost benefits from raw material price declines, contributing to a stable profit growth despite increased marketing expenses [3]. - The sales and management expense ratios for 25H1 were 6.4% and 2.1%, respectively, reflecting a slight increase due to heightened market spending [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company slightly adjusted its revenue growth expectations downward due to competitive pressures and slow recovery in dining demand, forecasting net profits of 7.08 billion, 7.68 billion, and 8.20 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 48.40 yuan, based on a 40x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its leading market position [4].