银行股为何持续回调

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has experienced a significant pullback since July, with 17 banks seeing declines of over 10%, indicating a shift in market dynamics from defensive to growth-oriented sectors [1][5][8]. Market Performance - On August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99%, with a total trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan [1]. - The banking sector initially rose by 1.3% but ended the day down by 0.77%, reflecting a "V" shaped reversal [1]. Sector Analysis - From July 11 to August 29, only 4 out of 42 listed banks saw an increase in their stock prices, while 17 banks experienced declines exceeding 10% [5]. - Notable declines included Minsheng Bank (-16.18%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (-15.79%), and Beijing Bank (-15.25%) [5]. Fundamental Factors - The banking sector continues to face operational pressures, with a rare negative growth in new credit data reported in July and a projected 1.2% decline in net profits for commercial banks in the first half of 2025 [5][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current pullback is more related to market sentiment and style shifts rather than fundamental weaknesses in the banking sector [5][9]. Market Sentiment and Style Shift - Analysts indicate that the shift in market style is causing funds to move from defensive banking stocks to growth sectors, driven by a desire for higher returns [1][8]. - The banking sector had previously contributed significantly to market gains, with a reported contribution of 87.61 points to the index in the first half of the year [6]. Future Outlook - Tianfeng Securities views the current pullback as a "bull market interlude," suggesting it does not signify the end of the banking sector's recovery [8]. - The bank's attractiveness remains strong due to low interest rates and a favorable dividend yield of 3%-4%, which is expected to draw in long-term funds [9]. - Structural opportunities exist within the banking sector, as some banks report better-than-expected earnings, such as Xi'an Bank, which saw a 43.7% increase in revenue [8].