俄罗斯汽油出口禁令生效，国内汽油价格缘何一夜飙升近50%？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gasoline prices in Russia, nearly 50%, is attributed to a temporary export ban aimed at stabilizing domestic supply, which has led to significant price fluctuations and potential social unrest [1][3][4]. Group 1: Export Ban and Domestic Supply - The Russian government implemented a temporary export ban on gasoline from September 1 to September 30, 2025, to stabilize domestic supply [1]. - This ban is an extension of a previous restriction that began on March 1, 2025, indicating a recurring strategy to manage domestic fuel prices [1][3]. Group 2: Price Surge and Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2025, the price of 92-octane gasoline in Russia has increased by approximately 38%, while 95-octane gasoline has seen a staggering rise of 49% [4]. - In regions like Crimea and the Far East, some gas stations are experiencing supply shortages, highlighting a severe imbalance between domestic demand and supply [4]. Group 3: Contributing Factors to Price Increase - Multiple factors have contributed to the current gasoline supply tightness and price surge, including increased demand for agricultural fuel during the summer, routine maintenance at refineries, attacks on refining facilities, and a rise in private vehicle usage [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Recent data from the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) indicates that gasoline prices in Russia have started to decline from previous highs, suggesting a potential stabilization of domestic supply and prices as the export ban period concludes [7].