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立高食品(300973):奶油业务驱动增长 经营势能持续提升

Core Viewpoint - The company's revenue growth is driven by the expansion of its cream business, while improvements in management efficiency have enhanced profitability [1]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.99, 2.36, and 2.74 yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 26.0%, 18.6%, and 16.0% respectively, and a target price of 63 yuan [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 171 million yuan, up 26.24%. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 1.024 billion yuan, growing 18.4%, with net profit of approximately 82.39 million yuan, a 40.84% increase [2]. Revenue Composition - In H1 2025, frozen baked goods accounted for about 55% of product revenue, growing approximately 6% year-on-year, while baking ingredients made up about 45%, with a growth rate exceeding 30%. The strong market response to the company's cream products has led to deeper channel penetration and broader customer reach [3]. - The cream product revenue grew by 28.7% year-on-year, with the distribution channel contributing nearly 50% of total revenue, remaining stable year-on-year. Supermarket channel revenue increased by nearly 30%, driven by the successful launch of new products [3]. - Innovative channels such as catering, tea drinks, and new retail accounted for slightly over 20% of revenue, with a combined growth rate of approximately 40%, reflecting the company's strategic adjustments to marketing and resource allocation in response to the diversification of baking consumption channels [3]. Profitability - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.35%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 7.11 percentage point decline in the gross margin of the cream business, influenced by rising raw material costs [4]. - The net profit margin improved to 8.05%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to enhanced management efficiency leading to a reduction in expense ratios across various categories [4].