2025年从无序到有序：重塑全球能源转型的未来图景报告

Group 1 - Global energy demand continues to rise, with a projected increase of approximately 2% in 2024, primarily driven by population and economic growth in India, China, and Southeast Asia, while demand in Europe and North America remains stable [10][12] - Renewable energy deployment reached record levels in 2024, meeting about 8% of global energy demand, but fossil fuel consumption also increased, indicating a supply-demand imbalance that threatens climate commitments [10][12] - The growth of renewable energy is uneven, with China contributing 57% of the global renewable energy increase, while Europe saw only a 6% growth rate in 2024 [25][24] Group 2 - Electrification is a significant trend, with electricity demand growing at twice the rate of overall energy demand, primarily driven by rapid electrification in China [33][35] - Natural gas consumption reached a record high in 2024, with demand increasing in Europe, China, the US, and the Middle East, indicating its evolving role as a complementary energy source alongside renewables [42][43] - Oil demand growth rate has slowed to 0.6%, with the US and Europe potentially reaching peak demand, while China's oil demand has decreased, suggesting a stabilization in global oil demand [51][53] Group 3 - Coal's share in global energy is declining, but demand remains resilient, particularly in China and India, where consumption is increasing, while Europe continues to see a decline [57][60] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping energy trade flows, with Russia redirecting oil exports eastward and Europe increasing imports from the US and the Middle East to reduce dependence on Russian energy [3][8] - Commodity prices have shown reduced volatility compared to previous years, but uncertainties remain regarding future oil and gas prices influenced by supply-demand dynamics [8][50]