Ge Long Hui·2025-08-30 03:30Core Viewpoint - The performance of 澳博控股 in 2Q25 fell short of market expectations, with a net income of HKD 7.16 billion, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth but a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline, returning to 85% of the level seen in 2Q19 [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for the company was HKD 688 million, down 21% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 69% of the level in 2Q19, and was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 939 million [1] - Daily operating costs increased by HKD 900,000, representing a 9.9% year-on-year growth and a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter growth, with management expecting future daily operating costs to continue rising by HKD 100,000 to HKD 200,000 [1] Development Trends - 澳博 signed an agreement with 澳娱综合 to acquire 7,504 square meters of space in the 澳门葡京酒店 for HKD 539 million, which is expected to allow the allocation of 25-35% of the satellite gaming tables (458 tables) in the newly acquired area, potentially doubling the number of gaming tables at the 澳门葡京酒店 [1] - Management plans to increase marketing rebate expenditures to compete with peers in Macau [1] - The company is seeking to raise funds through mortgage loans for the acquisition of 澳门凯旋门 and 十六浦 properties by the end of 2025, and will refinance a USD 500 million bond maturing in January 2026 through bank loans [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with the company's stock price corresponding to a 10x adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2025 [2] - The target price has been raised by 19% to HKD 2.50, corresponding to an 8x adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2H25e+1H26e, indicating a 25% downside potential from the current stock price [2]