Ge Long Hui·2025-08-30 03:43Core Viewpoint - China Taiping's 1H25 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.2% to HKD 6.76 billion, primarily due to lower-than-expected income tax [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The new business value (NBV) of life insurance increased by 22.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the embedded value grew by 8.8% since the beginning of the year [1] - The group’s net assets increased by 4.4% to HKD 74.238 billion [1] - The individual insurance NBV rose by 22.4%, and the bancassurance channel increased by 23.8%, with the overall new business value rate improving by 3.1 percentage points to 21.6% [1] Group 2: Business Structure and Strategy - The company has optimized its business structure significantly, with the contribution of participating insurance to long-term new business orders reaching 91.3%, and individual insurance at 97.5% [1] - The sensitivity of new business to interest rates has decreased significantly, with the negative impact of adverse scenarios on NBV reduced from 30.5% in 1H24 to 5.5% in 1H25 [1] Group 3: Non-Life Insurance and Reinsurance - The non-life insurance segment reported a 4.3% increase in insurance service revenue, with motor and non-motor insurance growing by 2.1% and 7.9% respectively [2] - The combined cost ratio (CoR) improved by 1.5 percentage points to 95.5%, leading to a net profit increase of 87.6% to RMB 630 million [2] - Reinsurance business saw a 2.6% decline in insurance service revenue, but the CoR improved by 2.9 percentage points to 93.8%, resulting in a net profit increase of 77.4% to RMB 800 million [2] Group 4: Investment Performance and Future Outlook - The company’s net and total investment returns were 3.11% and 2.68% respectively, reflecting a decline of 0.36 percentage points and 2.59 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Despite investment pressures, the long-term indicators such as embedded value (EV) showed positive trends, with the group and life insurance EV increasing by 7.2% and 6.5% respectively since the beginning of the year [2] - The forward-looking indicators on the liability side have improved significantly, particularly in the transformation of participating insurance and enhanced underwriting capabilities in non-life insurance [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is currently trading at 0.32x/2025e P/EV, with a target price increase of 25% to HKD 28.4, corresponding to 0.50x 2025e and 2026e P/EV, indicating a potential upside of 55% [3]