Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 1H25 exceeded expectations despite a 38% year-on-year decline in net profit to HKD 404 million, primarily due to falling coal prices, but the decline was less than anticipated due to a greater reduction in costs [1] Production and Sales - In 1H25, the production of raw coking coal and premium coking coal increased by 17% and 19% year-on-year to 2.64 million tons and 1.54 million tons, respectively, with 100% of raw coal being washed [2] - The sales volume of premium coking coal rose by 16% year-on-year to 1.55 million tons, largely due to the resumption of production after the temporary shutdown of the Xingwu coal mine last year [2] Price and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of premium coking coal in 1H25 decreased by 45% year-on-year to RMB 1,067 per ton, while the price of Shanxi main coking coal fell by 36% to RMB 1,401 per ton [2] - The unit production cost of raw coking coal improved significantly, decreasing by 28% year-on-year to RMB 328 per ton, with cash costs down by 32% to RMB 241 per ton [2] Cash Flow and Dividends - The net operating cash inflow in 1H25 was HKD 453 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.27 million [2] - As of the end of June, the company had available free funds of HKD 9.475 billion, which, after excluding the year-end dividend for 2024, amounts to HKD 8.406 billion [2] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 6 HK cents, corresponding to a payout ratio of 76% and a dividend yield of approximately 2.2% based on the current share price [2] Market Trends - In 3Q25, coking coal prices have started to rebound, with the price of Liulin No. 9 coking coal rising from a low of RMB 968 per ton in June to RMB 1,278 per ton by August 28, with an average price of RMB 1,209 per ton in 3Q25, reflecting a 10% increase from 2Q25 [3] - Future price increases may depend on further reductions in domestic supply, as demand for coking coal is expected to contract due to weak steel demand and declining profits [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its coal price and cost assumptions, reducing its earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 4% to HKD 892 million and HKD 978 million, respectively [3] - The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8x for 2025 and 14.4x for 2026, with a target price maintained at HKD 3.00, implying an 8% upside potential [3]
首钢资源(00639.HK)：增量降本优异 业绩好于预期