关税战下突围：中国风电叶片单批出口4600万，东南亚成新战场

Industry Overview - Large wind turbine blades are core components of wind power units, typically exceeding 40 meters in length, responsible for capturing wind energy and converting it into mechanical energy. The primary materials used are glass fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP), accounting for over 70%, while carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) are gradually penetrating the market due to their lightweight advantages. The industry chain includes raw material supply, design and manufacturing, testing and certification, and operation and maintenance services, with high technical barriers [1]. Market Characteristics - The design of blades is becoming larger (with lengths expected to reach 153 meters by 2025) and smarter to enhance power generation efficiency in low wind speed environments [4]. - The industry is heavily reliant on policies, directly influenced by "dual carbon" goals and wind power subsidy policies, making demand closely tied to policy cycles [4]. - Production capacity is concentrated in coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Shandong, leveraging port advantages to boost exports (with Jiangsu's single batch export value expected to reach 46 million yuan by 2025) [4]. Current Status (2015-2025) - The market size for blades is approximately 44.2 billion yuan in 2023, projected to increase to 49.1 billion yuan in 2024 (a year-on-year increase of 11.09%), and expected to surpass 50 billion yuan by 2025 [5]. - Blade length has increased from an average of 38 meters in 2010 to 153 meters by 2025, with low wind speed start-up technology significantly enhancing power generation efficiency [5]. - The market concentration is relatively low, with the top five companies (CR5) accounting for less than 40%, while leading companies like Times New Material are solidifying their positions through technological upgrades (e.g., TMT126BA floating blades) [5]. Future Trends (2025-2030) - The demand for offshore wind power will drive the penetration rate of carbon fiber blades, with 20MW floating units (paired with 126-meter blades) entering the testing phase [8]. - Smart upgrades utilizing AI design and digital twin technology will optimize blade aerodynamic performance, potentially increasing annual power generation by 600,000 kilowatt-hours per unit [8]. - Export expansion is being driven by tariff policies that compel supply chain optimization, with Southeast Asia and Europe identified as key export markets [8]. Challenges and Opportunities - The U.S. tariff policy is raising carbon fiber costs, while global wind power installations are expected to exceed 2,000 GW by 2030 [7]. - Extreme weather conditions are impacting blade durability, but low wind speed technology is broadening the inland market [7]. - Cost reduction pressures (with GFRP accounting for over 60% of costs) and breakthroughs in recycling technology are fostering a circular economy [7].