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美团-W(03690.HK):外卖竞争激烈程度远超预期
Ge Long Hui·2025-08-30 04:13

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2Q25 revenue and adjusted net profit fell short of market expectations, primarily due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector, leading to increased user subsidies, rider incentives, and advertising expenses [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - 2Q25 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to 91.8 billion yuan, but was 2% below market expectations; adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, significantly lower than expected, with adjusted net profit margin dropping from 16.5% in the same period last year to 1.6% [1]. - Core local business revenue grew by 8% year-on-year to 65.3 billion yuan; however, the food delivery segment's revenue growth was flat due to the impact of subsidies [1][2]. - The company expects a 13% decline in food delivery revenue in 3Q25 due to ongoing competitive pressures and a decrease in average order value (AOV) [1]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a 36% year-on-year increase in order volume in 2Q25, with expectations for continued strong growth in 3Q25 [1]. - The in-store and travel segment experienced over 40% year-on-year growth in order volume, with projected GTV and revenue growth of 27% and 13% respectively in 3Q25 [1]. - New business revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 26.5 billion yuan in 2Q25, but operating losses widened to 1.8 billion yuan due to increased overseas investments [2]. Profitability Forecast - The core local business operating profit margin (OPM) fell from 25.1% to 5.7% year-on-year, with expectations for further declines in 3Q25 [2]. - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 28.6 billion yuan to a loss of 5.9 billion yuan, and reduced the 2026 profit forecast by 21% to 34.7 billion yuan [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a positive outlook on the resilience of its food delivery business as the industry shifts focus from market share to profitability [2].