Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 91.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 12% but below market expectations, with significant declines in operating and net profits due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector and losses from overseas expansion [1] Group 1: Core Local Business - Core local business revenue grew by 8% year-over-year to 65.3 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue growth lagging behind the increase in instant delivery transaction volume due to increased delivery subsidies [2] - Operating profit for the core local business fell by 76% year-over-year to 3.7 billion yuan, significantly below the market expectation of 12 billion yuan, primarily due to declining gross margins and increased user incentives and marketing expenses [2] - The company plans to continue strategic investments in Q3 2025, which may pressure profit metrics, while maintaining a long-term profit assumption of 1 yuan per order and a profit margin of approximately 3% for 2025 [2] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The food delivery business saw a steady growth with a 10% year-over-year increase in order volume, driven by various models enhancing food supply and user engagement [3] - The Meituan Flash Purchase business experienced strong growth in order volume and transaction value, with significant increases in high-ticket item sales during the "618" shopping festival [3] - The in-store travel and accommodation business performed well, with order volume growing over 40% year-over-year and revenue increasing by 15% [3] Group 3: New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue grew by 23% year-over-year to 26.5 billion yuan, driven by retail and overseas business growth, although operating losses expanded to 1.9 billion yuan due to increased costs in overseas operations [4] - Keeta maintained strong growth in order volume and gross transaction value, solidifying its leading position in Hong Kong and expanding into 20 cities in Saudi Arabia and launching services in Qatar [4] - The company remains optimistic about Keeta's long-term growth potential, aiming for a gross merchandise value of 100 billion USD within 10 years [4] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is optimistic about its core barriers in instant delivery and growth opportunities from overseas expansion, but has revised down its profit forecasts due to irrational competition and increased short-term investments [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 370.2 billion, 417.9 billion, and 475.5 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP net profit forecasts of 5 billion, 32.3 billion, and 48.8 billion yuan respectively [5] - The company has set a target market value of 735.1 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 120 yuan per share [5]
美团-W(3690.HK):外卖竞争加剧导致利润承压 静待长期价值释放