“反内卷”政策预计会继续ING

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July showed a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March this year, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [2][3]. Group 1: PPI Trends - In July, the prices in coal mining, black metal smelting, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, cement manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw a reduced month-on-month decline of 1.9, 1.5, 0.8, 0.3, and 0.1 percentage points respectively, contributing to a reduced downward impact on PPI by 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - The month-on-month decline in PPI was primarily influenced by a series of "anti-involution" policies that have led to a rebound in product prices in cyclical industries, as evidenced by the futures price trends of coal, steel, and cement [3][4]. Group 2: Year-on-Year PPI Analysis - The year-on-year PPI in July decreased by 3.6%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with the PPI growth rate remaining in negative territory for 34 consecutive months [4]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant factor in the month-on-month improvement of PPI, addressing the core issue of low-price competition driven by supply-demand imbalances [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to continue supporting the month-on-month improvement of PPI, but the extent of this improvement and whether the year-on-year growth can turn positive will require further observation [5]. - To solidify the effects of the "anti-involution" policies, it is crucial to restore domestic demand; otherwise, competitive pressures among enterprises may intensify [6].