蒙古将最大铜矿卖给澳洲，放话不准卖给中国矿石，16年后却成这样

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Mongolia's decision to sell a stake in the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine to Rio Tinto while prohibiting the sale of copper ore to China, highlighting the long-term consequences of this choice for both Mongolia and Rio Tinto [2][3][19]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - According to the International Copper Study Group, copper prices are expected to rise until 2030, with global demand projected to reach 2 million tons [2]. - The Oyu Tolgoi copper mine is recognized as a world-class resource, with proven copper reserves exceeding 30 million tons, ranking sixth globally [6]. Group 2: Mongolia's Strategic Decisions - In 2009, Mongolia sold 66% of the Oyu Tolgoi mine to Rio Tinto for $3.1 billion, aiming to attract investment and technology while enhancing its position in the international mining market [7]. - Mongolia's decision to exclude China from purchasing copper ore was driven by a desire to strengthen ties with Western nations and reduce dependence on China and Russia [10][19]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto underestimated the impact of Mongolia's restrictions, as China is the largest consumer of copper and is located less than 100 kilometers from the mine [10]. - The Mongolian government required Rio Tinto to invest in new power plants and processing facilities, complicating the operational landscape for the company [12][14]. - Transportation costs surged due to the prohibition on exporting to China, increasing shipping expenses by approximately $300 per ton [16]. Group 4: Short-term Gains vs. Long-term Risks for Mongolia - In the short term, Mongolia benefited from infrastructure investments and financial support from Rio Tinto, including debt forgiveness and interest-free loans [18]. - Long-term risks include damage to Mongolia's international reputation as a reliable partner, as well as potential declines in foreign investment due to restrictive policies [19][21]. Group 5: China's Response and Future Outlook - China's copper imports from Mongolia are minimal compared to those from Chile and Peru, indicating limited impact from Mongolia's export restrictions [22]. - Mongolia is now reassessing its diplomatic relations with China and Russia, with recent efforts to strengthen ties and improve border trade [23].