张军扩：消费、房地产、科技创新是“十五五”必须破解的三大问题

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of China's economy is influenced by three key factors: consumption, real estate, and technological self-reliance, which are critical for achieving high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][3][5]. Consumption - China's resident consumption rate has been persistently low, with a rate of only 39.45% when per capita GDP reached $10,000 in 2019. Although there is an expected improvement by 2024, it remains 10% to 20% lower than that of major economies. This structural issue is attributed to insufficient social security, unstable resident expectations, and weak consumer confidence, compounded by pressures in education, healthcare, and elderly care [3]. - To unlock consumption potential, it is essential to enhance counter-cyclical policy support, improve social security levels, and expand the supply of quality services [3]. Real Estate - The era of large-scale and extensive expansion in real estate has ended, with the total housing supply issue largely resolved. However, there will be a long-term demand for improved and quality housing. The current low growth rate of fixed asset investment is primarily dragged down by a significant decline in real estate investment [3]. - Future real estate development must explore new models, focusing on urban renewal, community renovation, and infrastructure development, rather than relying on land finance and a single development model. Establishing a long-term mechanism that aligns the interests of the government, enterprises, and homeowners is crucial for the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector [3][4]. Technological Innovation - There is a pressing need to accelerate the transition from "follow-up innovation" to "frontier innovation" as a requirement of changing development stages and a key to achieving high-level technological self-reliance. This involves leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system and creating a vibrant innovation ecosystem [4]. - It is important to create an environment that allows various enterprises, especially private ones, to participate equally in major technological breakthroughs, reform the evaluation methods of scientific research, enhance tolerance and incentives for risk-taking, and establish a reasonable institutional framework between self-sufficiency and open cooperation [4]. Financial Role - Finance plays a crucial role in addressing the three aforementioned issues. It is essential for unlocking consumption potential, facilitating real estate transformation, and promoting technological innovation. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should continue to serve as a model and lead the way in exploring experiences during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]. - The resolution of the issues related to consumption, real estate transformation, and technological innovation is vital for achieving a balanced supply-demand relationship and ensuring smooth economic circulation, which is necessary for stable and sustainable economic development in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5].