华源证券：首次覆盖迎驾贡酒给予增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report on Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) indicates that the company's performance is under pressure due to declining demand in the liquor industry, but it is expected to recover as demand stabilizes in the future [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, a decline of 24.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of 302 million yuan, down 35.22% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 68.33%, down 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 27.10%, down 4.78 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Market Dynamics - The company's revenue from high-end liquor decreased significantly, with Q2 2025 revenue for high-end products at 817 million yuan, down 23.60% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 210 million yuan, down 32.90% year-on-year [2]. - The company's performance in the Anhui province market remains strong, with Q2 2025 revenue of 730 million yuan, down 20.29% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 296 million yuan, down 36.38% year-on-year [3]. Channel and Distribution - Direct sales revenue increased by 1.46% year-on-year to 82 million yuan, while wholesale revenue decreased by 27.40% to 944 million yuan, indicating a shift towards direct sales channels [3]. - The number of distributors remained stable at 1,383, with slight increases in both provincial and non-provincial distributors [3]. Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is projected to have net profits of 2.13 billion yuan, 2.26 billion yuan, and 2.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -17.64%, 5.90%, and 8.99% [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 17.1 for 2025, 16.15 for 2026, and 14.81 for 2027, indicating potential for investment [4].