供给端扰动不断 这一化工原料价格大幅上涨5000元／吨

Core Viewpoint - TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) prices have experienced fluctuations this year, rising significantly after a low in April, driven by supply constraints and increased demand, particularly due to external factors affecting production capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - TDI prices rose from below 10,000 yuan/ton in April to a peak of 17,000 yuan/ton in July, before retreating to around 15,000 yuan/ton in August [1][4]. - The price increase in July was approximately 6,000 yuan/ton, attributed to supply tightness and increased export volumes [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Supply disruptions have been significant, with major producers like Covestro and BASF facing production halts due to various incidents, leading to a global supply reduction of about 16% [2][3]. - Covestro announced a 10% reduction in supply to China to support the European market, following a previous warning about supply tightness [1][4]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand for TDI has unexpectedly increased, with a reported 83% year-on-year growth in TDI exports from China in the first half of 2025, driven by U.S. tariff policies [3]. - The primary consumption sectors for TDI include soft foam (73%) and coatings (over 17%), with significant applications in furniture, construction, and transportation [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while current price declines may continue, the fundamental market conditions, including inventory dynamics and export expectations, could lead to a rebound in prices [6][7]. - Historical context indicates that TDI prices have previously experienced significant volatility, with past peaks reaching as high as 55,000 yuan/ton in 2016-2017 due to supply reductions and rising demand [7].