三一重能(688349)：1H25业绩符合市场预期 风机有望盈利触底回升

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met market expectations, with significant revenue growth but a decline in net profit [1] Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenue of 8.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.75%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.17 yuan, down 51.54% year-on-year [1] - For 2Q25, the company achieved revenue of 6.407 billion yuan, representing an 80.3% year-on-year growth and a 292.9% quarter-on-quarter increase; net profit was 401 million yuan, up 139.2% year-on-year, marking a turnaround from a loss [1] Business Segments - The company's wind turbine gross margin was under pressure, with a gross margin of 4.65%, the lowest in recent years, primarily due to the impact of low-priced orders from previous periods [1] - The company sold over 300,000 kW of power stations, generating 1.83 billion yuan in revenue from this segment, with a gross margin of 28.8%, indicating a smooth sales rhythm for power station products [1] Development Trends - As of the end of 1H25, the company had a backlog of 28 GW in orders, with over 2 GW of new overseas orders since the beginning of 2025, and overseas order value exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to see significant growth in wind turbine shipments in 2025, with overall shipment levels projected to remain stable in 2026; wind turbine profitability is anticipated to improve as the impact of low-priced orders diminishes [2] - The power station business is experiencing rapid growth, with 0.46 GW of new connected power stations added in 1H25 and 2.9 GW under construction, alongside plans for greenfield projects overseas [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected profit margins in the wind turbine manufacturing business, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 35.1% and 12.4% to 1.51 billion yuan and 2.40 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 and 14.5 for 2025 and 2026, respectively; the company maintains a target price of 33.92 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 19.3% from the current price [3]