关注30年国债新券特6的利差压缩机会

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing low returns and high volatility, increasing the demand for tactical trading and selection skills. Investors are advised to focus on the spread compression opportunity of the new 30-year government bond [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Observations - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has shown signs of desensitization, with stock and bond movements transitioning from "one rises while the other falls" to "synchronous fluctuations" [5][6]. - Institutional behavior has become more rational, with redemption pressures on fixed-income products not significantly worsening, indicating limited room for trading positions to reduce [6][7]. - Market logic is returning to fundamentals and policy expectations, with the central bank's liquidity support alleviating market sentiment [7]. Group 2: Equity Market Trends - The equity market remains in a trend-up phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a "volume-based consolidation" rather than a "volume-declining downturn" [14][17]. - Short-term price pullbacks in a trend-up phase are often triggered by emotional disturbances or profit-taking, but core drivers such as policy expectations and liquidity remain unchanged [17]. - The current market structure indicates a rotation of funds between sectors, with low-valuation sectors like brokerage and real estate adjusting while growth sectors like solar and semiconductors remain active [17]. Group 3: 30-Year Government Bond Opportunities - The characteristics of bond asset returns have changed, with excess returns now relying on tactical trading strategies such as betting on rebounds and the convergence of new and old bond spreads [19][20]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on the spread compression opportunity of the new 30-year government bond, as its yield is currently at 2.135%, with a spread of 11.7 basis points compared to the active bond [20][21]. - As the new 30-year government bond gradually becomes an active bond, liquidity premiums are expected to rise, potentially leading to a "spread elimination" scenario [21].