芦哲：人民币汇率是否会升破7.0？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a strong central parity rate, with onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates breaking through key levels, indicating a potential convergence towards the central rate [2][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since late July, the central parity rate has consistently indicated a strong appreciation signal, leading to a rapid increase in the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates, with expectations for the USD/CNY to move towards the 7.10-7.15 range [3][4] - As of August 29, the USD/CNY central parity rate was reported at 7.1030, up 33 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a continued strong signal for appreciation [3][4] - The market is closely monitoring factors such as the reversal of "carry trade," the potential for "panic settlement," and the central parity's "bottom line thinking" to gauge future movements in the RMB exchange rate [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to accelerate, with the potential for the exchange rate to reach 7.1 in the short term, contingent on further guidance from the central parity rate [2][3] - The "carry trade" based on RMB has been re-attracted due to a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points between China and the US, although volatility may disrupt this trend [4][11] - The accumulated "pending settlement" amount as of July 2025 was approximately $421.1 billion, with an average holding cost around 7.05, indicating that a rapid depreciation below 7.10 could trigger some capital flight [10][11] Group 3: Implications for Exporters - The active settlement rate for export enterprises has shown a marginal increase, with July's rate at 48.24%, approaching the previous year's levels, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8][10] - The potential for "panic settlement" among exporters is lower than in 2024 due to increased hedging against exchange rate fluctuations, which may lead to a more orderly release of settlement funds [10][11] - The RMB's appreciation against the dollar may not adversely affect exports, as the RMB index against a basket of currencies has depreciated, helping to mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [24]