机械设备-出海链深度报告：出海链：似曾相识燕归来：2025年出海链投资框

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines an investment framework for the "outbound chain" in 2025, emphasizing the selection of high-quality companies with significant exposure to the U.S. market, strong brand ownership, and consumer-oriented attributes, driven by an improving competitive landscape and anticipated demand recovery [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Framework - The 2025 outbound chain investment framework prioritizes high-quality companies with substantial U.S. exposure, high self-owned brand ratios, and strong consumer product attributes [6][11]. - Key companies expected to experience growth include TaoTao Vehicle, Giant Star Technology, and Spring Wind Power, which have enhanced overseas production capabilities and localized operations in the U.S. [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context - The report reviews the 2020 outbound chain bull market, where companies like Spring Wind Power and Giant Star Technology saw significant profit growth, with net profit increases of 102% and 51% year-on-year, respectively [6][24]. - During 2020-2021, China's export share of global trade rose to 10.3% and 10.4%, benefiting from a disrupted global supply chain and improved U.S. demand due to monetary stimulus [28][30]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook for 2025 - The supply side in 2025 is characterized by significant trade barriers leading to a reduction in the number of companies, with a 90% drop in golf cart exports to the U.S. from January to July 2025, highlighting the competitive advantage of firms with overseas production [8][39]. - On the demand side, the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which includes corporate tax reductions, are expected to boost investment and mid-to-high-end consumer spending [8][38]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a focus on companies that have survived the trade war since 2018, as these firms have significantly improved their overseas production and U.S. operational capabilities [9][10]. - The report emphasizes that companies with overseas production and strong U.S. market presence are likely to outperform, as they can navigate trade barriers more effectively [23][47].