2025年白银价格走势解析：白银还值得投资吗？

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has shown significant volatility, driven by multiple factors including industrial demand and monetary policy expectations, with current prices reflecting a deeper integration of global silver markets [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the New York silver futures price is at $39.62 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.21% from the previous day, with a daily trading range of $39.57 to $39.725 per ounce [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver main contract price reached 9,405 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.4% increase since the beginning of the month, achieving the second-highest record of the year [1]. - The Shanghai silver price experienced a "volatile ascent" in August, with a maximum monthly increase of 1.98%, particularly highlighted by a single-day increase of 183 yuan per kilogram on August 25 [3]. Demand Drivers - The explosive growth of China's solar energy industry has significantly supported silver demand, with a reported 93 gigawatts of new solar capacity added in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 300%, requiring approximately 20 tons of silver per gigawatt for conductive paste [4]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is identified as a core factor driving silver prices upward, with an 88% probability currently assigned to this outcome [3][4]. Investment Trends - The silver market is showing a divergence between strong ETF demand and weak physical sales, with global silver ETF holdings reaching 791 million ounces by mid-August, a 10% increase since the beginning of the year, and a 20 million ounce increase in just the past four weeks [4]. - In contrast, sales of physical silver coins have significantly declined, with U.S. Mint silver coin sales dropping 48% year-on-year in July [4]. Trading Platforms - Selecting a "regulated spot silver trading platform" is crucial for risk management in a volatile market, with Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Company being highlighted for its compliance and regulatory backing [5]. - The platform offers transaction transparency, allowing investors to track trades in real-time, and implements a zero-commission policy with a $100 per lot spread discount, which is beneficial for new investors [5]. Investment Guidelines - New investors are advised to verify platform credentials and familiarize themselves with trading rules, such as the contract size for London silver being 5,000 ounces [6]. - Risk management strategies, including using stop-loss tools to limit individual trade risk to 5% of capital, are recommended, along with avoiding impulsive trading behaviors [6]. - The emphasis is placed on a long-term investment strategy rather than short-term speculation, encouraging a rational approach to price fluctuations [6].