民生证券-三友化工-600409-2025年半年报业绩点评：二季度业绩环比增长，“反内卷”政策落地或带动公司业绩持续修复-250830

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in pricing and demand within its product segments [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 9.562 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 11.13% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan, down 77.64% year-over-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 46 million yuan, reflecting an 85.77% year-over-year decline [1] Product Performance - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a decline in product prices, impacting overall revenue [1] - Sales volume for viscose staple fiber and PVC segments increased sequentially, with Q2 sales reaching 210,500 tons and 111,400 tons, respectively, up by 22,400 tons and 6,700 tons [1] - The prices of several products are at historically low levels, with heavy soda ash at the 0.5% price percentile over the past decade [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates potential performance recovery due to the expected implementation of "anti-involution" policies [1] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 190 million, 391 million, and 499 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.19, and 0.24 yuan [1] - As of August 28, the closing price corresponds to PE ratios of 67, 32, and 25 for the respective years [1]