看空情绪升温！如何看待碳酸锂后市行情？

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices continue to decline, reaching a low of 75,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 4.72% as of August 29 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current decline in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to ongoing market speculation regarding supply contraction expectations [2] - A significant drop in futures prices occurred on Thursday, with the 2511 contract falling nearly 5%, influenced by the news of Yongxing Materials' successful renewal of its safety production license [2] - The market had previously been concerned about the renewal of mining licenses, which contributed to a risk premium in lithium carbonate futures prices [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The market is experiencing a structural mismatch in supply and demand, with weekly lithium carbonate production remaining high at 19,000 tons, only slightly down by 108 tons [4] - Despite a decrease in production from Jiangxi lithium mica, the overall production remains elevated due to high-priced imported spodumene [4] - As of August 28, social inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,100 tons, down by approximately 407 tons, indicating limited improvement in the fundamental market conditions [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The price of lithium carbonate has returned to a neutral level, with short-term supply-demand contradictions being minimal [5] - However, prolonged production halts and declining ore inventories may exacerbate supply-demand issues, potentially driving prices higher [5] - The focus will shift to the completion of the resource verification report and subsequent mineral type changes by September 30, which will be critical for market sentiment [5]