双环传动(002472)：主营业务持续成长 新兴业态空间在望

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.229 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 577 million yuan, an increase of 22.02% [1] - The decline in apparent revenue is primarily due to the exit from the steel sales business, but the core business saw an 11.56% growth year-on-year, indicating a focus on high-quality development [2] - The company’s gross margin and net margin reached 27.06% and 14.54%, respectively, marking the highest levels in the past five years [2] Business Performance - The commercial vehicle segment experienced a significant decline in revenue, down 29.72% year-on-year, attributed to a high base from the previous year [2] - However, there was a 23.27% quarter-on-quarter increase in commercial vehicle sales revenue compared to the second half of 2024, suggesting potential recovery in the upcoming periods [2] - New energy commercial vehicle projects have been successfully secured, laying the groundwork for recovery in the commercial vehicle sector [2] Emerging Business Growth - The company’s emerging businesses, including robotics and intelligent systems, showed strong growth, with revenues increasing by 35.66% and 51.73% year-on-year, respectively [2] - These innovative sectors are expected to continue supporting the company's rapid growth [2] International Expansion - The construction of the Hungary factory has been completed, with equipment installation underway, expected to contribute to revenue in the second half of 2025 [3] - The Hungary base will serve as a strategic hub for deepening overseas market penetration and building a global operational system [3] Investment Outlook - The company is focusing on core competencies in gear technology while advancing in electric drive, intelligent systems, and robotics [4] - The exit from the steel trading business has led to an adjustment in profit forecasts, with projected net profits of 1.280 billion, 1.567 billion, and 1.875 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - Corresponding earnings per share are estimated at 1.51, 1.85, and 2.21 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 24.58, 20.08, and 16.78 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]