森麒麟(002984)：原材料与关税双重冲击 业绩短期承压

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight revenue increase in the first half of 2025, but a significant decline in net profit, indicating short-term pressure on performance due to rising raw material costs and tariff impacts [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 4.119 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 672 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.64% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 2.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.35%. However, the net profit for the same quarter was 311 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 45.85% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14.01% [1]. Sales Volume and Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 14.37 million semi-steel tires, a year-on-year decrease of 1.65%, while full-steel tire sales reached 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.11% [2]. - In Q2 2025, semi-steel tire sales were 7.207 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6%. Full-steel tire sales surged to 286,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 81.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.0% [2]. Profitability and Cost Pressures - The company faced significant pressure on profitability due to rising raw material costs and U.S. tariff policies, with a gross margin of 24.6% in the first half of 2025, down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 16.3%, down 9.90 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 26.45%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.70 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [2]. Global Expansion and Product Development - The company is set to launch a large-scale production of 12 million semi-steel tires in Morocco in the second half of 2025, enhancing its global production capacity and competitiveness amid trade tensions [3]. - The company is also focusing on brand enhancement, with its tire market share in the U.S. and Europe exceeding 5% and 4% respectively in 2024, and has begun supplying winter tires to Volkswagen for the Touareg model [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the impact of rising raw material costs and U.S. tariffs, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.6 billion, 2.06 billion, and 2.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.8, 10.0, and 8.8 times at the current stock price [4].