华鑫证券：给予合盛硅业买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Hoshine Silicon Industry's performance is under pressure due to the downturn in industrial silicon and organic silicon markets, leading to a significant decline in revenue and net profit [1][2][3] Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hoshine Silicon achieved revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 140.60% [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.548 billion yuan, down 42.11% year-on-year and 13.02% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 245.87% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 352.93% [2] Industry Analysis - The decline in performance is attributed to falling sales prices of industrial silicon and organic silicon products, with the industrial silicon market experiencing a downward price trend due to supply-demand imbalances [3] - Domestic industrial silicon production in the first half of 2025 was 1.85 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease, while the production of polysilicon was 597,000 tons, down 44.0% year-on-year [3] - The organic silicon industry saw a consensus on production cuts in Q1, but production increased in Q2, with total domestic DMC production exceeding 1.2 million tons, a nearly 20% year-on-year increase [3] Financial Metrics - The company's R&D expense ratio decreased due to lower material inputs, while net cash flow from operating activities increased by 1987.93% due to reduced production and inventory clearance [4] - The company is accelerating the upgrade of its R&D center, focusing on innovative manufacturing technologies and smart production models, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the silicon-based materials sector [5] Profit Forecast - Due to the decline in product prices, the profit forecast for Hoshine Silicon has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.024 billion yuan, 1.889 billion yuan, and 2.113 billion yuan respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 60.8, 33.0, and 29.5 for the respective years, with a maintained "buy" investment rating due to the company's leading position in the organic silicon and silicon carbide industries [6]