锡业股份(000960)：Q2扣非业绩表现亮眼 锡业龙头未来可期

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.093 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.35% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.062 billion yuan, up 32.76% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.55% increase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.365 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.82% [1] - The net profit for Q2 was 562 million yuan, up 18.76% year-on-year and 12.61% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q2 was 810 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.60% and a significant quarter-on-quarter rise of 64.04% [1] Group 2: Metal Prices and Production - The increase in metal prices, with tin, copper, and zinc averaging 8.9%, 3.7%, and 4.0% respectively in H1 2025, contributed to the company's performance [2] - The total production of non-ferrous metals in H1 2025 was 181,300 tons, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, with specific production figures for tin, zinc, and copper being 48,100 tons, 69,800 tons, and 62,500 tons respectively [3] - In Q2 2025, total non-ferrous metal production was 99,100 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.6% [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 12.34%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 2025 saw a gross profit margin of 13.06%, up 0.54 percentage points year-on-year and 1.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company effectively managed its expenses, with a significant reduction in the expense ratio to 3.47% in H1 2025, down 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 40.22%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.355 billion yuan, 2.650 billion yuan, and 2.817 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 63.07%, 12.53%, and 6.29% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.43 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.71 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.3, 12.7, and 11.9 [5]