邓正红能源软实力：市场份额争夺正引发未来两年供应过剩 重塑油价底层逻辑

Core Insights - The article discusses the oil price outlook, predicting that Brent crude oil may hover around $67 per barrel by 2025 due to a combination of OPEC's production increases and U.S. tariffs impacting demand [1][2][3] - The analysis emphasizes that the current fluctuations in oil prices are a reflection of the changing global energy power structure, which is more strategically significant than merely forecasting specific prices [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A projected oversupply of 950,000 barrels per day over the next two years is anticipated due to market share competition, with OPEC's recent decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day [1][3] - The average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2025 is $67.65 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $64.65 per barrel, indicating a stable outlook compared to previous estimates [1][2] Policy and Market Sentiment - U.S. tariff policies, particularly those affecting Indian imports of Russian oil, are expected to suppress demand growth, contributing to a bearish sentiment in the market [2][4] - Economic indicators, such as a declining U.S. consumer confidence index, are raising concerns about a potential recession and its impact on oil demand [2][3] Technological and Structural Changes - Long-term oil prices will be influenced by value innovation factors, including advancements in low-carbon technologies and changes in demand structure, with global oil demand growth expected to be significantly lower than historical averages [3][4] - The U.S. shale oil production is constrained by price levels, reflecting the pressures of traditional energy transformation under the value innovation dimension [3][4] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, adds complexity to the oil market, with a calculated war premium of $3.20 per barrel embedded in Brent contracts [4] - The effectiveness of OPEC's production adjustment mechanisms is diminishing, with remaining daily production capacity expected to rise to 4 million barrels by 2025, a 17% increase from 2024 [4]