hbky(SH:600985) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-31 04:35Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to decreased production and sales in the coal segment, alongside challenges in pricing and margins [1]. Group 1: Coal Segment Performance - The company's coal production was 8.908 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, while sales were 6.476 million tons, down 19.4%, mainly due to the closure of the Zhuzhuang mine (1.6 million tons/year) due to resource depletion [2]. - The average selling price of coal was 834.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.0%, while the cost was 468.9 yuan/ton, down 17.0%. The gross profit per ton of coal was 366.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 36.8% [2]. - The coal business's gross profit margin was 43.8%, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Coal Chemical Segment Performance - In the coal chemical segment, production of coke, methanol, and ethanol saw year-on-year increases of 0.6%, 90.7%, and 203.4%, respectively [4]. - However, the selling prices for coke, methanol, and ethanol decreased by 33.3%, 2.1%, and 9.3%, respectively [5]. - Sales revenue for coke, methanol, and ethanol changed by -34.1%, -4.2%, and +213.8%, respectively [6]. Group 3: Resource Acquisition and Project Development - The company successfully acquired 23.47 million tons of deep resources from the Wobei mine and is advancing its chemical industry projects, including a 30,000-ton carbonate and 30,000-ton ethylamine project that has produced qualified products [7]. - The company has commenced construction on the Leimingkehua Henan Nanzhao Qingshan mine project and obtained mining rights for the Yunnan Huaping Ganqing mine, securing 34.62 million tons of limestone resources [7]. - Additionally, the company is accelerating the construction of the Tao Hutu coal mine project and power plant [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Since June, coal prices have rebounded due to reduced production and strong downstream demand, with the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port rising from 1,270 yuan/ton on June 4 to 1,610 yuan/ton on August 29 [8]. - It is anticipated that with ongoing production cuts, coal prices will maintain an upward trend, leading to continued improvement in the fundamentals of the industry [8]. Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the company's performance in the first half of 2025 and the recent improvement in the coal market, net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.97 billion, 3.31 billion, and 3.74 billion yuan, respectively [9]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the stock price as of August 29, 2025, are expected to be 17.1, 10.2, and 9.0 times, respectively [9]. - Given the anticipated improvement in the coal industry's fundamentals and the potential resumption of production at the Xinh Lake coal mine, the company maintains an "overweight" rating [9].