Key Points - The core issue revolves around President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent behavior, which raises concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank [1][4][5] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions and statements indicate a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with market expectations for a rate cut in September exceeding 80% [3][12] - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite political tensions, with inflationary pressures from tariffs being viewed as temporary and not significantly hindering the likelihood of a rate cut [12][18] Economic Data - The U.S. July Core PCE Price Index remained stable at 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][7] - New home sales in the U.S. fell by 0.6% in July to an annualized rate of 652,000 units, exceeding market expectations of 630,000 units [7] - The second quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.3%, surpassing both the expected 3.1% and the initial estimate of 3% [7] Market Reactions - Following recent economic data, U.S. stock markets experienced a pullback, attributed to profit-taking after a period of gains and rising concerns over tariffs [3][12] - The dollar has weakened while gold prices have risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment as expectations for a rate cut approach [12][18] Central Bank Developments - The ongoing legal dispute initiated by Lisa Cook against President Trump highlights the contentious relationship between the administration and the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting market confidence [5][4] - The Trump administration is reportedly exploring ways to exert more influence over the Federal Reserve, including the selection process for regional bank presidents [4][5]
薛鹤翔：特朗普继续蚕食美联储独立性-20250830全球宏观经济报告