迎驾贡酒(603198)：业绩加速调整、基本面或已触底 静待需求复苏

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in revenue and net profit, indicating pressure in the liquor industry, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segment, leading to inventory clearance efforts [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.16 billion and net profit of 1.13 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 16.89% and 18.19% respectively [1] - Q2 2025 figures show revenue of 1.11 billion and net profit of 302 million, with year-on-year declines of 24.81% and 35.22% respectively [1] - The company's contract liabilities at the end of Q2 2025 were 440 million, down by 22 million year-on-year and 16 million quarter-on-quarter, indicating a significant drop in cash flow [1] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Structure - Q2 2025 gross margin and net profit margin were 68.33% and 27.10%, down by 2.82 percentage points and 4.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales and management expense ratios increased to 13.41% and 5.51%, up by 3.41 percentage points and 2.10 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 23.60%, while ordinary liquor saw a decline of 32.90% in Q2 2025 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Channel Performance - The company is focusing on inventory clearance in response to demand pressure, with Q2 2025 cash flow from sales down by 22% year-on-year [1] - The company’s direct sales channel revenue increased by 1.46%, while wholesale agent revenue decreased by 27.40%, indicating a shift towards direct sales [3] - The number of distributors at the end of Q2 2025 was 1,383, with a slight increase in both provincial and non-provincial distributors [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.13 billion, 2.26 billion, and 2.46 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.64%, 5.90%, and 8.99% [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the upcoming years are projected at 17.1, 16.15, and 14.81 [3] - The company is expected to show resilience in revenue and net profit due to strong channel management and brand recognition in the Anhui market [3]