民生证券：给予南山铝业买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's performance in H1 2025 was impacted by a decline in alumina prices, despite a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit. The company is making steady progress on its projects in Indonesia, which are expected to drive future growth [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Nanshan Aluminum achieved revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 460 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 17.7% [2]. Price and Production Insights - Nanshan Aluminum's current electrolytic aluminum capacity is 680,000 tons, and alumina capacity is 3.4 million tons, with 1.4 million tons in China and 2 million tons in Indonesia. In H1 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be around 340,000 tons [3]. - The average aluminum price in H1 2025 was 20,321 yuan per ton, up 2.7% year-on-year, while the alumina price in Shandong was 3,416 yuan per ton, down 0.4% year-on-year [3]. Project Development - The first phase of the 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 1 million tons, was commissioned in H1 2025, and the second phase is progressing as planned. Additionally, the company is constructing a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and a 260,000-ton carbon project in Indonesia [3][4]. - Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian operations are set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which will facilitate further investment and growth in the region [4]. Market Opportunities - The rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market presents significant demand for automotive plates, with Nanshan Aluminum positioned as a leader in this sector. The company has partially commissioned a 200,000-ton capacity for automotive plates, which is expected to benefit from increasing demand [4]. Profit Forecasts - Analysts project Nanshan Aluminum's net profit for 2025 to be approximately 4.93 billion yuan, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 at 5.20 billion yuan and 5.68 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 10x, 9x, and 8x [4][5].