民生证券：给予韵达股份买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Express (韵达股份) is expected to recover its performance in the second half of 2025, driven by continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement amid a backdrop of "anti-involution" in the express delivery industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025 (1H25), Yunda achieved revenue of 24.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, while gross profit was 1.68 billion yuan, down 31.5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 6.8%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 1H25 was 530 million yuan, a decline of 49.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [2]. - For the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025), revenue was 12.64 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 740 million yuan, down 43.3% year-on-year, leading to a gross margin of 5.8%, a decrease of 4.9 percentage points [2]. Cost Management - In 1H25, the company reduced its core cost per ticket by 0.09 yuan, with average revenue per ticket at 1.92 yuan, down 0.16 yuan year-on-year, and average profit per ticket at 0.04 yuan, down 0.05 yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company has focused on optimizing its franchise express network and enhancing its logistics assets, digitalization, and automation [3]. Technological Advancements - Yunda has launched 1,926 grid warehouses and 468 collection warehouses in 1H25, doubling the number of grid warehouses since the end of 2024, and is upgrading collection warehouses for improved efficiency [3]. - The company is implementing a multi-layered technology strategy, "1+N+AI," to enhance operational quality and efficiency across its service network [3]. Future Outlook - Yunda is expected to achieve net profits of 1.82 billion yuan, 2.20 billion yuan, and 2.48 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [4]. - The company is well-positioned as a leading player in the express delivery industry, with stable market share and steady growth in business volume, supported by ongoing digital transformation and cost reduction efforts [4].