Workflow
9月决议前风云突变:特朗普历史性出手、法院悬而未决,美联储理事会遭“洗牌”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-31 07:43

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented political turmoil surrounding the Federal Reserve, initiated by Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, complicates the anticipated interest rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Political Turmoil and Its Implications - Trump's actions mark the first time a sitting president has attempted to remove an active Fed governor in the Fed's 111-year history [1]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit to prevent her dismissal, leaving her status and voting rights for the upcoming September meeting uncertain [1]. - The outcome of this power struggle will directly influence the composition of the Federal Reserve Board and future monetary policy [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Board Composition - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is composed of 7 Washington-based Fed governors and 5 rotating regional Fed presidents, with the governors forming the core of power [3]. - Currently, the board includes three Biden-appointed officials (including Cook) who typically align with Powell's voting stance, and two Trump-appointed governors who supported rate cuts in July [3]. - If Cook is dismissed, the board could reach a 3-3 deadlock between Trump and Biden appointees, potentially allowing Trump to nominate a successor who would shift the balance in favor of his policies [3]. Group 3: Diverging Rate Paths - There is a consensus within the FOMC for at least a 25 basis point rate cut, but significant internal dissent remains [4]. - Hawkish views persist, with some officials advocating for continued tightening due to high inflation [4]. - Some Trump-appointed officials may push for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if economic conditions worsen [4][5]. Group 4: Powell's Leadership Under Pressure - Powell faces immense pressure from political dynamics and Cook's legal situation as he seeks consensus for the upcoming meeting [6]. - Economic data will be crucial for Powell's policy adjustments, with recent labor market data indicating a significant downturn [6]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report will serve as a critical economic indicator for Powell's decision-making amidst the political turmoil [6].