特朗普“解职美联储理事”的闹剧，虚假繁荣才是美元最危险的敌人

Core Viewpoint - The recent political maneuver by Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook under the pretext of "loan fraud" directly targets Fed Chair Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has been claimed to be autonomous since its establishment in 1913 [1][4]. Group 1: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The independence of the Federal Reserve is described as "half-hearted," as it operates within the realm of U.S. electoral politics, suggesting that Trump's actions expose the underlying political manipulation of monetary policy [4][12]. - Trump's potential success in removing Cook could undermine the perceived professionalism of U.S. dollar policy, transforming the Fed into a tool for presidential agendas, thereby eroding the foundations of dollar hegemony [4][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculation - There is speculation that Trump and Powell may be collaborating to create a narrative that suggests a high likelihood of interest rate cuts, which has led to significant market reactions, including a surge in stock prices and a drop in bond yields [5][7]. - The market's enthusiastic response to vague signals from Powell indicates a disconnect between actual monetary policy intentions and market perceptions, leading to a self-deceptive cycle [5][11]. Group 3: Risks of False Certainty - The article warns that the Federal Reserve may be hesitant to implement rate cuts due to the looming fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $1.8 trillion, which could further weaken the dollar and increase capital flight risks [8][12]. - The concept of "false certainty" is highlighted, where market participants may become complacent, leading to potential financial instability as historical patterns suggest that such illusions often precede market crashes [11][14]. Group 4: Systemic Concerns - The broader concern is that U.S. politicians are treating monetary policy as a short-term political tool, which could ultimately undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to a loss of trust among global investors [12][14]. - The article posits that the real threat to the dollar's dominance comes not from external challenges but from internal political actions that compromise its integrity [14].