三诺生物(300298)：血糖板块稳健增长 不懈推进出海进程

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.264 billion yuan for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.12%, which aligns with expectations; however, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, down 8.53% year-on-year, slightly below expectations due to fluctuations in gross margin and expense ratio [1] Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's blood glucose monitoring segment generated revenue of 1.659 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, with the parent company's blood glucose segment revenue at 1.148 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for 1Q25 was 48.7%, which rebounded to 54.6% in 2Q25, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.9 percentage points; the sales expense ratio was 27.0%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio remained stable at 9.6% [3] Growth Prospects - The company has expanded its blood glucose meter products to 3,800 hospitals, over 400,000 pharmacies, and more than 10,000 community and township hospitals, covering over 20 mainstream e-commerce platforms, with more than 25 million users globally across 187 countries and regions [2] - The second growth curve centered on Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) has made progress, with the second-generation CGM product approved for market in China and registrations in Brazil, Iran, and Vietnam, along with MDR certification in Europe [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the profit margin fluctuations in 1H25, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 5.5% and 3.6% to 402 million yuan and 501 million yuan, respectively; the current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 29.2 times for 2025 and 23.4 times for 2026 [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic blood glucose segment and is expected to continue its successful overseas expansion, with a target price of 28 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 33.7% from the current stock price [4]