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四川路桥(600039):Q2新签订单提速 静待执行

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on improving order execution and maintaining a stable profit scale in the future [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 43.536 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 4.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.780 billion yuan, down 13.00% year-over-year [1]. - The second quarter (Q2) saw revenue of 20.550 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 13.21% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 10.60% [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for 25H1 was 14.5%, down 1.38 percentage points year-over-year, with Q2 gross margin also at 14.5%, reflecting similar declines [2]. Order and Project Development - The company secured new orders totaling 72.2 billion yuan in 25H1, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.2%, with Q2 showing a significant acceleration compared to Q1 [4]. - The company benefited from regional investment demands, particularly in Sichuan, with a notable increase in orders from both domestic and international markets [4]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The operating expense ratio improved to 5.68% in 25H1, down 1.04 percentage points year-over-year, with significant reductions in various expense categories due to the exclusion of certain subsidiaries [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -4.284 billion yuan, a decrease in outflow of 439 million yuan year-over-year, indicating improved cash management [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 8.007 billion, 8.386 billion, and 8.727 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 11.95 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 13x for 2025, supported by a higher dividend yield compared to peers [5].