上海建工(600170)：Q2经营如期改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of improvement in the second quarter, leading to a maintained "buy" rating. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 105.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 14.07% year-on-year [1] - The Q2 2025 revenue was 64.73 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.14% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.55%. The net profit for Q2 was 889 million yuan, up 65.94% year-on-year and 595.82% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 8.28%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 gross margin was 8.74%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 1.20 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 2: Cost and Cash Flow - The expense ratio for H1 2025 was 7.69%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.23%, 3.57%, 2.94%, and 0.94%, respectively [3] - The company recorded a net reversal of impairment of 315 million yuan in H1 2025, compared to an impairment loss of 235 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The net operating cash flow for H1 2025 was -18.48 billion yuan, a reduction in outflow by 4.14 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection/payment ratio of 126%/143%, up 7.6 and 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 3: Contract and Market Activity - The new contract amount for H1 2025 was 130.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, with Q2 new contracts at 65.7 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year but showing a narrowing decline [4] - The company actively expanded into emerging businesses, securing 30.2 billion yuan in new contracts from six emerging sectors, accounting for 23% of total new contracts [4] - In the Yangtze River Delta region, the company secured 84% of new contracts, with Shanghai alone accounting for 90.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 42% [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.302 billion, 2.426 billion, and 2.543 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 14 times, leading to a target price adjustment to 3.63 yuan, up from 3.11 yuan, while maintaining a "buy" rating [5]