五粮液(000858)：费投力度加大

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q2 2025 performance met market expectations, with slight revenue growth but a decline in net profit [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 15.831 billion (up 0.10%), with net profit at 4.632 billion (down 7.58%) and non-recurring net profit at 4.618 billion (down 5.75%) [1] - H1 2025 revenue reached 52.771 billion (up 4.19%), with net profit at 19.492 billion (up 2.28%) and non-recurring net profit at 19.480 billion (up 2.86%) [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from Wuliangye and series liquor grew by 4.6% and 2.7% respectively, driven by volume increase but price decrease [3] - Wuliangye's sales volume increased by 12.7% while the price per ton decreased by 7.2%, indicating a controlled volume strategy [3] - Series liquor saw a significant sales volume increase of 58.8% but a price decrease of 35.3%, mainly due to the expansion of mid-to-low priced products [3] Group 3: Channel Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from distribution and direct sales channels grew by 1.2% and 8.6% respectively, with direct sales accounting for 43.1% of the liquor business revenue [3] - The increase in direct sales is attributed to the establishment of a large business platform and active development of corporate group purchases [3] - The top five customers in the distribution channel saw a revenue increase of 181.0%, contributing to 57.0% of total liquor sales [3] Group 4: Profitability Analysis - Q2 2025 gross margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points, remaining stable overall, with limited impact from product mix changes [4] - Tax and additional fees, sales, and management expense ratios increased by 0.84, 1.54, and -0.04 percentage points respectively, leading to a net profit margin decrease of 2.4 percentage points to 29.3% [4] Group 5: Cash Flow and Quality - Q2 2025 sales cash collection increased by 12.0%, likely due to seasonal payment cycles, with accounts receivable financing decreasing by 15.68 billion [5] - As of the end of Q2 2025, contract liabilities decreased by 0.89 million, indicating a sufficient performance buffer [5] Group 6: Investment Outlook - The company’s marketing system reform shows initial success, with expectations for continued improvement in financial statements [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 89.85 billion, 93.59 billion, and 98.71 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 31.16 billion, 32.48 billion, and 34.64 billion [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16, 15, and 15 for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]