古井贡酒(000596)：2025Q2收入同比转降 费效比提升下净利率仍有提升

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, despite facing demand pressures and a decline in revenue in the second quarter [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, with net profit at 1.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [1]. Brand and Product Performance - For H1 2025, revenue from the flagship product, Year Original, was 10.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% (volume +10.8%, price -8.3%) [2]. - Revenue from Gujingongjiu was 1.18 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year (volume +9.3%, price -12.5%) [2]. - Revenue from Huanghelou and others was 1.50 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year (volume +12.1%, price -4.8%) [2]. Regional Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from North China was 0.81 billion yuan, down 27.0% year-on-year, and from South China was 0.77 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from Central China was 12.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, indicating a focus on strengthening the company's position in this advantageous market [2]. Channel Performance - Online revenue in H1 2025 was 0.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, while offline revenue was 13.31 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company maintained a positive trend in cost-effectiveness, with a net profit margin increase of 0.8 percentage points in Q2 2025 [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - In Q2 2025, cash sales amounted to 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, and operating cash flow was 2.31 billion yuan, up 48.4% year-on-year [3]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company's contract liabilities were 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.5 billion yuan from the previous quarter and down 36% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slight improvement in demand due to upcoming festive seasons, benefiting from refined channel management and strong brand presence in the province [4]. - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downward, with expected revenues of 23.01 billion yuan, 24.16 billion yuan, and 26.57 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -2.4%, +5.0%, and +10.0% respectively [4].