房价的迷思：那些被资本收割的中产与挣扎求存的刚需

Group 1: Market Overview - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a profound value reassessment, with significant disparities in property value appreciation and depreciation across different regions and timeframes [1][4][9] - In Chengdu, new housing supply has increased by 28% in recent years, indicating a clear trend of oversupply, although supply has decreased by 12% year-on-year in the first eight months of this year [2][4] - The vacancy rate in third and fourth-tier cities is as high as 21.3%, with inventory expected to take at least five years to be absorbed, contrasting with the relatively stable prices in core areas of first-tier and strong second-tier cities [4][9] Group 2: Economic and Policy Impacts - The high interest rates maintained by the central bank significantly increase repayment pressure on homebuyers, with a 100 million yuan mortgage resulting in monthly payments that are 1,200 yuan higher compared to lower interest periods [4][5] - The government is shifting its real estate policy from "stimulus" to "support," with various local policies aimed at easing purchasing conditions, such as the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai [7][8] - The introduction of 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market, further pushing prices towards reasonable levels [11] Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Economic uncertainties and income instability are major factors affecting homebuying decisions, with many high-position buyers facing monthly payments that exceed 70% of their income [5][9] - The changing demographic landscape, particularly the decline in the population of potential homebuyers, is reshaping market dynamics, with younger generations increasingly questioning the value of homeownership [9][11] - Market expectations are shifting, with recent policy changes boosting buyer confidence, leading to increased transaction volumes in certain areas while high-end property demand is declining [8][9]