华尔街最讨厌的九月来了

Group 1 - August saw significant gains in the US and European stock markets, with the S&P 500 reaching a historic high above 6500 points and the Dow Jones also hitting new highs [1] - September is historically the worst-performing month for US stock markets, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq typically recording their largest declines of the year [3] - In Europe, the banking sector emerged as a clear winner, with European bank stocks reaching their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by strong earnings reports and ongoing merger rumors [3] Group 2 - Media stocks faced significant losses, declining over 8% in the past two months due to concerns about the impact of AI, with WPP experiencing a 71% drop in pre-tax profits and lowering its full-year guidance [4] - There is a noticeable divide in institutional perspectives regarding market outlook, with some remaining optimistic about the continuation of the bull market while others express caution about economic pressures [5][6] - Optimists, like UBS's Mark Haefele, believe that a soft landing for the economy, robust corporate earnings, and lower interest rates will support the market over the next 12 months [6] - Conversely, cautious analysts, such as EY-Parthenon’s Gregory Daco, highlight increasing pressures on the US economy, suggesting that the strong growth observed may be misleading and driven by temporary factors [6]